Mirziyoyev’s Brussels Mission: The Deal That Could Redefine Central Asia’s Future
Khujabekov Ubaydullo, Research assistant at the Institute for Advanced International
According to reports from Brussels, Uzbekistan is entering a new strategic phase in its relations with Europe. On October 24, 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will make an official visit to the Belgian capital, where he is expected to sign the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) between Uzbekistan and the European Union. Experts view this document as a historic milestone, marking the transition of relations between Tashkent and Brussels from formal dialogue to a genuine strategic partnership.
In a congratulatory message celebrating Uzbekistan’s Independence Day, President of the European Council António Costa highlighted the significance of Mirziyoyev’s forthcoming visit to Brussels, emphasizing that it will mark “the signing of an important agreement” between the EU and Uzbekistan. Costa expressed optimism about continuing discussions during the Brussels meeting, reaffirming Europe’s commitment to deepening cooperation with Uzbekistan.
During the visit, the sides are expected to sign the EPCA, a comprehensive framework defining future collaboration across five strategic pillars: political dialogue and reforms, trade and economy, foreign and security policy, justice and internal affairs, and sustainable development. The agreement establishes shared commitments to democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and fundamental freedoms, while promoting regional stability, economic modernization, and sustainable growth.
This modern framework aligns with Uzbekistan’s ongoing reforms and its efforts to create a transparent, rules-based economy. For the EU, the EPCA represents access to a fast-developing Central Asian market and a trusted partner in sustainable connectivity, energy transition, and critical raw materials. For Uzbekistan, it paves the way for deeper integration with Europe, facilitating better access to EU markets under the GSP+ scheme and accelerating modernization in energy, digital, and agricultural sectors.
In the lead-up to the visit, Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov and Head of the Presidential Administration Saida Mirziyoyeva held a series of high-level meetings in Italy, Switzerland, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and Belgium. These discussions laid a solid foundation for what analysts describe as “Tashkent’s European Turn.” Rather than a change in geopolitical orientation, this approach reinforces Uzbekistan’s multi-vector foreign policy — strengthening cooperation with Europe while maintaining balanced ties with its traditional partners in the East.
Throughout October, Saidov met with senior European leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis, and EU Commissioners Josef Síkela and Marta Kos, as well as foreign ministers of Latvia and Cyprus. Discussions centered on digital transformation, sustainable logistics, and green development, highlighting Europe’s growing view of Uzbekistan as a pillar of regional stability and a key driver of economic connectivity across Central Asia.
Meanwhile, Saida Mirziyoyeva advanced Uzbekistan’s humanitarian and socio-economic diplomacy. In Brussels, she met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, and EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, addressing reforms, women’s entrepreneurship, youth development, and environmental initiatives. In London, she met with members of the British Parliament and academic institutions, leading to a symbolic achievement – the inclusion of Uzbek and Old Uzbek (Chagatai) in the University of Oxford curriculum, strengthening Uzbekistan’s cultural footprint in Europe.
Her Brussels meetings also emphasized Uzbekistan’s readiness to deepen cooperation with Belgium in agriculture, green technology, and education. Under the EU-AGRIN project, innovative agricultural technologies are being introduced – solar-powered drip irrigation systems that reduce water and energy use by over half, and climate-resilient seeds that increase yields by one-third. Collaborative plans include the modernization of irrigation systems, wastewater recycling, biomass energy, and agrotechnology transfer. Belgium’s expertise in environmental and academic sectors plays a key role, particularly through cooperation with Namur University in agricultural research and professional training.
The new agreement replaces the outdated 1996 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, offering a broad institutional foundation for long-term modernization and strategic cooperation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan described the EPCA as a historic step reflecting the country’s progress in political and economic development. It will also pave the way for new initiatives, including the “EU–Central Asia Investment Forum” in Tashkent in November 2025.
The signing concludes a process launched in 2017, when Tashkent first proposed to begin negotiations on the new framework. Since then, bilateral relations have deepened substantially. In 2024, trade between Uzbekistan and the EU rose to €6.4 billion, an 8% increase, while the EU’s total trade with Central Asia reached €54 billion. More than 1,000 joint ventures now operate in Uzbekistan, backed by a European investment portfolio of nearly €40 billion.
According to experts, Uzbekistan’s proactive engagement with the EU reflects its strategic goal of strengthening sovereignty through diversified partnerships. As political analyst Akram Umarov notes, Tashkent’s “multi-vector” diplomacy ensures balance and independence, with the EU serving as a valuable partner supporting regional connectivity and sustainable development.
Economic reforms and liberalization have underpinned this transformation. Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s election, Uzbekistan has achieved rapid progress in governance, labor, and market reforms. Forced labor was eliminated, the cotton industry restructured, and new policies attracted record levels of investment. In 2024, Uzbekistan’s GDP reached $115 billion, doubling over eight years. Capital investments totaled $240 billion since 2017, including $130 billion in foreign inflows. The share of industry grew from 20% to 26%, while services rose from 44% to 47%, and labor productivity increased by 45%.
The EU’s share in Uzbekistan’s trade has grown significantly. Between 2017 and 2024, bilateral trade expanded 2.4 times to $6.4 billion, with exports rising 3.6 times to $1.7 billion. The EU now accounts for 9.7% of Uzbekistan’s total trade, ranking third after China and Russia. The introduction of GSP+ in 2021 boosted duty-free access to over 6,200 product lines, with a preference utilization rate of 84%. In 2024, exports were dominated by chemicals, textiles, and metals, while machinery and equipment from EU countries drove industrial modernization.
Investment cooperation continues to grow. In 2024 alone, investments and loans from EU states and institutions rose 77% to $4.1 billion, led by Germany, the Netherlands, and Cyprus. Around 1,000 European enterprises now operate in Uzbekistan, managing projects worth €30 billion. The EBRD plays a pivotal role, investing over €5 billion in total, including €1 billion in 2024.
Socioeconomic progress has also been notable. Uzbekistan’s population has reached 38 million, with an 18% increase since 2017, and poverty has fallen from one-third of the population to 8.9% in 2024 – with 7.5 million people lifted out of poverty. Rising incomes and domestic demand have drawn increased interest from European investors, particularly in agriculture, green energy, and innovation.
According to Dr. Ranokhon Tursunova of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, the signing of the EPCA marks “a new stage of partnership based on mutual respect and equality.” She notes that the agreement will expand trade, innovation, and humanitarian exchanges, attract European technologies and investments, and elevate Uzbekistan’s position as an open and reliable partner in Central Asia.
Economist Temir Bakhodirov emphasizes that Uzbekistan’s growing cooperation with Europe is part of a deliberate, gradual diversification of external relations, not a geopolitical pivot. It reflects a long-term trend toward openness and multi-vector diplomacy that enhances Uzbekistan’s sovereignty.
The signing of the agreement in Brussels thus represents not only a diplomatic milestone but also a declaration of strategic independence and maturity. Uzbekistan is positioning itself as both a connector and a co-architect of a new Eurasian framework for stability and sustainable development. Its engagement with the EU underscores a new model of partnership – balanced, forward-looking, and rooted in shared progress.
Today, Uzbekistan stands as a bridge between East and West, embodying the principles of balance, modernization, and mutual respect. The upcoming Brussels visit will firmly anchor this new status – establishing Uzbekistan as a center of stability, trust, and partnership on the Eurasian map.
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